Houston Chronicle SCI guy talks about what could be next in Tropics
Posted by
stormlover on 9/17/2010, 11:25 am
WHAT NEXT?
The long-term models are fairly consistent in developing some sort of tropical system in the Caribbean Sea during the next week or so which could track north into the Gulf of Mexico (this morning's GFS model, for example, brings a hurricane toward the Texas coast in 13 days). I would not be too alarmed yet and there's virtually no reliability in long-term forecasts.
Here's a relevant blurb from ImpactWeather's tropical discussion this morning:
With the high pressure which has been over the south-central U.S. shifting to the East U.S. Coast late next week, any storm approaching the Gulf of Mexico will no longer be blocked and shunted westward into Mexico as was the case with Karl. It is too early to determine where this possible hurricane will track across the Gulf, but it could make landfall just about anywhere from Texas to Florida.
Texas will be under threat at least until we get our first strong front. And when might that be?
Normally it comes by the first day of fall -- Sept. 23 this year. But that doesn't appear likely this month. According to Fred Schmude, of ImpactWeather, the main reason for the delay has to do with the orientation of the jet stream, which is the primary driving mechanism for shifting cold fronts across the continents.
Typically, Fred said, the jet stream has to have at least somewhat of a north to south component this time of the year to allow colder air masses a better chance to driving southward toward the Gulf Coast. So far this September the main jet stream has been oriented from west to east, which has kept the cooler air bottled up across the northern half of the U.S.
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Houston Chronicle SCI guy talks about what could be next in Tropics - stormlover, 9/17/2010, 11:25 am Post A Reply
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