Crown Wx has same outlook
Posted by Skip Wiley on 9/17/2010, 11:32 am


Caribbean Development Late Next Week or Next Weekend??:

The model guidance as a whole continues to strongly hint at development in the western Caribbean late next week or next weekend as a tropical wave is forecast to track across the Caribbean next week and will be the focus for this possible development.

Looking at the latest model guidance, the GFS model forecasts development out of the southwest Caribbean in about 7 to 8 days from now and ultimately forecasts this system to be pulled northward into the Gulf of Mexico by the end of the month. The latest European model forecasts that development will hold off until about 9 to 10 days from now and would occur in the southwest Caribbean. The Canadian model is now the most bullish and forecasts a system to be forming near Belize in 10 days from now and would be pulled northeastward by a strong trough over the eastern United States. The NOGAPS model forecasts this development to occur in about 7 days from now just south and southwest of Jamaica.

One thing the global model guidance all agree on is that a fairly deep trough will track across the eastern United States during the last few days of September into the first couple of days of October. So, if something is indeed developing in the western Caribbean like many of the model guidance members suggest, then it could be pulled northward and be a real threat to the United States.
159
In this thread:
Houston Chronicle SCI guy talks about what could be next in Tropics - stormlover, 9/17/2010, 11:25 am
< Return to the front page of the: message board | monthly archive this page is in
Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.