Re: is this correct ?
Posted by
Doorman on 9/18/2010, 2:00 pm
Maybe my crude message in the snapcast kept people away from comments
if thats the case I apologize sincerely....
Smoke Gets In Your Eyes
Trend are Weaker ..Period
NHC at 11:00am EDT
IGOR IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR...AND
THIS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HR OR SO. AFTER
THAT...THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING SHEAR. IT
IS UNCERTAIN IF THE CURRENT EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WILL BE
COMPLETE ENOUGH TO ALLOW STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE SHEAR
INCREASES...BUT CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST IT WILL NOT. MOST OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH OR SLOW
WEAKENING DURING THE FIRST 36 HR...WITH ONLY THE SHIPS MODEL
SHOWING MODEST STRENGTHENING. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
IGOR TO MAINTAIN A 95 KT INTENSITY FOR 36 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY
WEAKENING DUE TO SHEAR. IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT THAT IGOR COULD
REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE REACHING BERMUDA...BUT IT
APPEARS LESS LIKELY THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION SHOULD BE UNDERWAY BY 72 HR AND BE COMPLETE BY 96 HR.
IGOR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LARGE AND POWERFUL CYCLONE AFTER
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
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Will Igor be another Fabian? -
Gianmarc,
9/18/2010, 11:20 am Post A Reply
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