Boston NWS Discussion. Nada from NYC
Posted by
JAC on 12/13/2010, 8:28 am
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
629 AM EST MON DEC 13 2010
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS INDICATE A POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER
STORM AFFECTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH POSSIBLY
MONDAY. BESIDES THIS BEING DAYS 6 AND 7...THE DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS MAKE THIS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AND WILL NOT PUT
MUCH INTO THE DETAILS AT THIS TIME. WITH THIS RUN OF THE MODELS THE
GFS HAS A COLDER...STRONGER STORM MOVING RIGHT OVER THE BENCHMARK
MONDAY MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF HAS AN INSIDE RUNNER MOVING UP MORE
DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AGAIN...THIS IS A VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
706 AM EST MON DEC 13 2010
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN EXTENDED FORECAST THINKING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN
COLD AIR BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPS
AVERAGING 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
CAN BE EXPECTED MOST PLACES EXCEPT NYC AND IMMEDIATE ENVIRONS.
TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE...THOUGH STILL REMAINING BELOW
NORMAL...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
SLACKEN. AFTER THAT...MODELS DIVERGE WILDLY. THE LATEST ECMWF RUN
DEVELOPS AND TRACKS A COASTAL LOW NEAR THE AREA...WHILE THE CANADIAN
HAS A WEAKER SYSTEM FARTHER OFFSHORE AND THE GFS HAS NOTHING AT ALL.
PUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR SUNDAY IN DEFERENCE TO THE
ECMWF SOLUTION.
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