Axis of Heaviest Snow thru middle of Long Island. RUC takes it to 971mb
Posted by JAC on 12/26/2010, 2:33 pm


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2137
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  1131 AM CST SUN DEC 26 2010
 
  AREAS AFFECTED...MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO SRN AND CNTRL PARTS OF NEW
  ENGLAND
 
  CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
 
  VALID 261731Z - 262330Z
 
  BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES APPROACHING 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
  EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NWD/NWWD FROM PORTIONS OF DE/NJ THROUGH THE NYC
  METROPOLITAN AREA INTO SRN AND CNTRL PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND BY THIS
  EVENING.  IN ADDITION TO THE RAPIDLY ACCUMULATING SNOW...
  STRENGTHENING NELY WINDS WILL RESULT IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS BY LATE
  AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
 
  17Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A DEEPENING LOW OFF THE NC OUTER BANKS
  WHICH LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES WILL UNDERGO CONSIDERABLE
  DEEPENING WHILE DEVELOPING NWD TO OFF THE COAST OF NJ BY 27/00Z.
  THE RAPID CYCLOGENESIS CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO THE NNEWD TRANSLATION OF
  AN INTENSE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL PV ANOMALY ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
  COAST.  THE RESULTING ENHANCEMENT OF OCEANIC HEAT/MOISTURE FLUXES
  WILL SUPPORT THE CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION OF LOW- TO
  MID-TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH WILL PIVOT NWWD THROUGH SRN
  ENGLAND BY THIS EVENING...IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE LOW.
 
  SUBSEQUENT INTENSIFICATION OF ONE OR MULTIPLE HEAVY SNOW BANDS /VIA
  MESOSCALE CIRCULATIONS TIED TO FRONTOGENETIC FORCING/ IS EXPECTED
  THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH RATES POTENTIALLY
  BEING AUGMENTED BY SLANTWISE OR UPRIGHT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
  WHEN COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING GRADIENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
  CYCLOGENESIS...EXPECT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY LATE
  AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF NJ NWD THROUGH NYC INTO SRN NEW
  ENGLAND.  THE EXCEPTION MAY BE OVER SERN MA WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY
  REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY WARM TO SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OR ALL
  RAIN.
 
  ..MEAD.. 12/26/2010
 














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Blizzard,current conditions.. - Fred, 12/26/2010, 12:21 pm
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