Digging inside 40N 70W Benchmark
Posted by JAC on 1/9/2011, 8:36 am
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
555 AM EST SUN JAN 9 2011

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SEVERAL OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE DEVELOPING LOW WORKING UP THE COAST WILL
DEEPEN AS IT PASSES CLOSE TO OR JUST INSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK.
THERE IS STILL SOME TRACK SPREAD AMONGST THE 00Z OP RUNS AS
WELL AS SOME ENSEMBLES...NAMELY THE GGEM WHICH CONTINUES TO TRACK
THE LOW WELL SE OF THE BENCHMARK. HOWEVER...WITH MORE CONSENSUS ON
THE STORM/S TRACK...HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE THAT THE LOW WILL BECOME A
GALE CENTER /AT LEAST/ AS IT PASSES SE OF NANTUCKET LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

EXPECT PRECIP TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED
LIKELY POPS FOR THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS INTO THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS...THOUGH SUSPECT THIS WILL SHIFT FURTHER INLAND
LATER TODAY.

STILL EXPECTING MAINLY SNOW FOR MOST AREAS ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE
EAST COAST. HOWEVER...DEPENDING UPON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF
THE ONSHORE WINDS...WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MIX OR A PERIOD OF
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...AND POSSIBLY A BIT
FURTHER UP THE COAST. AS WE SEE IT THIS MORNING...THIS LOOKS TO BE A
MAJOR SNOW EVENT FOR MOST OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND SOUTH
OF THE MASS PIKE. THE POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW FROM THIS STORM. THE MODELS HAVE NOT SERVED US WELL
LATELY...SO HAVE SOME SKEPTICISM THAT SOMETHING DIFFERENT MAY
HAPPEN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION VERY CLOSELY.

EXPECT INCREASING N-NE WINDS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...WHICH WILL
BACK TO NW AS THE LOW PUSHES TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA LATE WEDNESDAY.
SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM W-E WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT SNOW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG THE E COAST THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE
NIGHT.

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significant/very significant Snowstorm/Blizzard for Northeast Tue/Wed?? - Fred, 1/8/2011, 5:19 pm
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