TC Formation Alert
Posted by JAC on 2/18/2011, 6:56 am
  WTPS21 PGTW 180530 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.0S 169.1E TO 17.9S 171.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 180500Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.7S 169.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.1S 169.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.7S 169.4E, APPROXIMATELY 195 NM NORTH- NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION WITH A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND CONVECTIVE BANDING WEST WRAPPING INTO THE NORTH QUADRANT. A 180249Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP, CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT WITH WEAKER BANDING NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A 172144Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED BUT DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 25-30 KNOT WINDS; OVERALL, THE CIRCULATION HAS SLOWLY STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED AND IS BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 23S 153E (EAST COAST OF AUSTRALIA) AND UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. BASED ON THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. NNNN |
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