17P
Posted by JAC on 2/18/2011, 3:46 pm
 ORGANISATION IMPROVED PAST 24 HOURS WITH PRIMARY BANDS TRYING TO WRAP AROUND LLCC. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO DIURNAL VARIATION MAKING LLCC CLOUD FILLED. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 500HPA. SST AROUND 30 DEGREE CELSIUS. SYSTEM LIES ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY A WEAK NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER MEAN REGIME. MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO SOUTH OF SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND RECEDE TO THE WEST AS SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH. DVORAK ASSESMENT BASED ON 0.40 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDING DT=2.5, MET=2.5 PT=2.5 FT BASED ON DT, THUS T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE GRADUALLY DEVELOPING THE DEPRESSION AND MAINTAINING A SSE TRACK. POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. |
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In this thread:
South Pac Bad-Boy - JAC, 2/17/2011, 11:36 am
- Solar Watcher Update - JAC, 2/21/2011, 7:35 am
- RI - Outer Eyewall Building - JAC, 2/20/2011, 8:20 am
- CAT 4 - JAC, 2/20/2011, 10:16 am
- Atu - JAC, 2/19/2011, 8:07 pm
- Just about on the surface - JAC, 2/18/2011, 3:48 pm
- TC Formation Alert - JAC, 2/18/2011, 6:56 am
- Good looking warm core - JAC, 2/18/2011, 6:58 am
- PV - JAC, 2/17/2011, 7:18 pm
- Mw 5.8 Closeby - Vanuatu - JAC, 2/17/2011, 4:57 pm
- A Hot Tower over the LLC - JAC, 2/17/2011, 4:39 pm
- TD11F - JAC, 2/17/2011, 2:09 pm
- Perefect UL - JAC, 2/17/2011, 12:48 pm
- Astrotometry - JAC, 2/17/2011, 12:41 pm
- Interesting - JAC, 2/17/2011, 12:36 pm
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