WPAC: Luzon under the gun
Posted by JAC on 5/5/2011, 6:10 am
| 93W spinning up east of Philippines. Globals in tight agreement with forecast track over NE Luzon.    WTPN21 PGTW 041400 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.0N 129.6E TO 11.6N 126.6E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM- AGERY AT 041200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 129.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.3N 131.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 129.0E, APPROXIMATELY 180 NM EAST OF MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPROVED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION ALTHOUGH STILL UNORGANIZED. A 041116Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVED LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND A 040922Z WINDSAT PASS DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT CENTRAL WINDS. ADDITIONALLY, A BUOY APPROXIMATELY 100 NM AWAY IS REPORTING A 1005 MB SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED BENEATH THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 051400Z.// |
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In this thread:
- Tropical storm Aere lashes the Philippines- 9 dead, 100,000 evacuated - JAC, 5/8/2011, 9:09 am
- Re: WPAC: Luzon under the gun - hanna, 5/7/2011, 9:41 pm
- Re: WPAC: Luzon under the gun - JAC, 5/8/2011, 9:10 am
- TD03W - JAC, 5/6/2011, 7:26 am
- Tropical Depression BEBENG - JAC, 5/6/2011, 4:17 pm
- 2nd Invest, 94W, now up - JAC, 5/5/2011, 9:16 pm
- Good to go - JAC, 5/5/2011, 6:16 am
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