TD03W
Posted by JAC on 5/6/2011, 7:26 am
 REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051351Z MAY 11// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 060600Z --- NEAR 11.5N 128.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 11.5N 128.4E REMARKS: 060900Z POSITION NEAR 11.7N 128.2E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 060447Z AMSR-E IMAGE SHOW A STRENGTHENING, SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED, TIGHTLY-WRAPPED SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING AND A WELL- DEFINED CENTER. ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS FRAGMENTED, OBSERVATIONAL DATA TO INCLUDE A 06/0108Z ASCAT IMAGE AND A 05/2140Z WINDSAT IMAGE INDICATE 25-30 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER; A SHIP REPORT AT 06/00Z, WEST OF THE CENTER, PROVIDES FURTHER EVIDENCE THAT THE SYSTEM IS NOW AT TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH WITH WINDS OF 360/20 KNOTS AND SLP OF 1003.5 MB. OVERALL, THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT HAS IMPROVED WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SYSTEM PRODUCING BROAD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. DUE TO THE DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION, THE DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE TOO LOW AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE AFOREMENTIONED OBSERVATIONAL DATA. TD 03W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INCREASINGLY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 96. AFTER TAU 96, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO RE-CURVE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE IS LIMITED BUT IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. TD 03W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A SLOW RATE UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAU 72 DUE TO THE LACK OF A STRONG OUTFLOW MECHANISM AS WELL AS THE BROAD NATURE OF THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER LUZON AND MAINTAIN AT WEAK TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO UNFAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND INTERACTION WITH A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 051351Z MAY 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 051400). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z.// NNNN      |
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In this thread:
WPAC: Luzon under the gun - JAC, 5/5/2011, 6:10 am
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- Re: WPAC: Luzon under the gun - hanna, 5/7/2011, 9:41 pm
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