STP has been increasing this afternoon and is uncapped. Kinda popped out of nowhere. Didn't see anything on SREF this morning. Squall line currently forming to the south in OK. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0309.html ![]() ![]() URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 309 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 145 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF MUCH OF KANSAS EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 145 PM UNTIL 900 PM CDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES NORTHEAST OF HILL CITY KANSAS TO 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MEDICINE LODGE KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 307...WW 308... DISCUSSION...AIR MASS HAS WARMED SUFFICIENTLY SOUTH OF WARM FRONT...NEAR A ICT-RSL LINE...AND EAST OF A DRYLINE IN WRN KS FOR STORMS TO INITIATE. THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP/SPREAD NWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO THE STRONG SLY FLOW ALOFT. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRONG INSTABILITY ARE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSE SUPERCELLS... WITH THE LARGER HAIL NEAR OR BIGGER THAN BASEBALL SIZE. ALSO...THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT TORNADOES...ONE OR TWO WHICH COULD BE STRONG. THE TORNADOES ARE MOST LIKELY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WHERE ELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED SHEAR. ...IMY |