Re: High threat for Tornadoes in KS
Posted by JAC on 5/19/2011, 4:58 pm
 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0814 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0344 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...NW TX...WRN OK...SRN/CNTRL KS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 308...309... VALID 192044Z - 192145Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 308...309...CONTINUES. ...WW 308...NW TX AND WRN OK... CONVECTION CONTINUES TO REGENERATE ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY DRYLINE /CURRENTLY POSITIONED 60 NNW ABI TO 40 NNE GAG/...WITH SEVERAL OF THE STORMS EXHIBITING SIGNIFICANT MIDLEVEL ROTATION AND MULTIPLE REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL RECEIVED. NUMEROUS STORM INTERACTIONS HAVE ALSO OCCURRED...OWING PRIMARILY TO A SIGNIFICANT ALONG-BOUNDARY COMPONENT TO THE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTOR...AND ALSO SEVERAL LEFT SPLITTING STORMS QUICKLY ADVANCING NWD. THIS HAS AFFECTED THE MAINTENANCE/EVOLUTION OF INDIVIDUAL STORMS...BUT CONTINUED MOIST SSELY INFLOW CONTINUES TO ALLOW GENERATION OF NEW STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE. TCU FIELD HAS BECOME MORE AGITATED ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE WW AREA IN NW TX IN MORE RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES...WITH AN UNPERTURBED ENVIRONMENT REMAINING FAVORABLE FOR NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. VWP DATA INDICATE SHEARED VERTICAL WIND PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL STORM/OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS. THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST WITH ANY RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELLS THAT CAN MAINTAIN INTENSITY E OF THE DRYLINE. THE INSTABILITY AXIS REMAINS RELATIVELY NARROW AS WELL...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING OFF INTO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS CNTRL OK AND ANY ADDITIONAL WARMING SOMEWHAT INHIBITED BY ANVIL CIRRUS SPREADING EWD. THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DMGG DOWNBURST WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE. ...WW 309...SRN/CNTRL KS... DEEP CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP THUS FAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATCH AREA...WITH MOST TCU FORMING NEAR AND TO THE S OF A NWD ADVANCING WARM FRONT. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE A NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS REMAINS POSITIONED ACROSS S-CNTRL KS...WITH LITTLE TO NO CINH. THE ENVIRONMENT STILL REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS /GIVEN EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50 KTS/...AND WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING...AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED. THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT IS STILL FORECAST TO EXIST IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT /WHERE 0-1 KM SRH IS MAXIMIZED/. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER NWRN OK ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL SOON ENTER S-CNTRL KS AS WELL. ..ROGERS.. 05/19/2011 |
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