98W Spins Up to 04W in the WPAC
Posted by JAC on 5/20/2011, 7:23 am







MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR) WARNING NR 001    
  01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
  WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   ---
  WARNING POSITION:
  200600Z --- NEAR 8.3N 141.9E
    MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
    POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
    POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
  PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
  WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  REPEAT POSIT: 8.3N 141.9E



TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 04W (FOUR) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED AS FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A
DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 30 KNOTS FROM PGTW. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES
INCLUDING A 200037Z TRMM PASS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 04W
IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS PROVIDING A
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, AS EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THE TD IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW
TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ALONG THIS TRACK FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER POLEWARD, ENHANCED OUTFLOW AND LOWER VWS UNDER
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL FAVOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION, FUELED BY WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA. THE VERY LIMITED
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS THIS TRACK FORECAST. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 200051Z MAY 11 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 200100). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z,
202100Z, 210300Z AND 210900Z.//
NNNN
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98W Spins Up to 04W in the WPAC - JAC, 5/20/2011, 7:23 am
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