Risk is east of MS River today and mostly around OH River
Posted by JAC on 5/26/2011, 6:25 am



DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0756 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011
 
  VALID 260100Z - 261200Z
 
  ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN
  OH...CENTRAL/SRN INDIANA...EXTREME ERN IL...KY...WRN-MID TN...NRN
  MS...EXTREME SERN AR...
 
  ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE IN CORRIDOR FROM SE
  TX TO WRN NY...SRN LOWER MI AND NERN IL....
 
  ...SYNOPSIS...
  PROGRESSIVE UPPER-AIR PATTERN OVER CONUS FEATURES HIGH-AMPLITUDE
  SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER NRN CA AND LOWER MO/MID MS RIVER VALLEY
  REGION. AS STG RIDGING BETWEEN THEM SHIFTS EWD...COMPACT CYCLONE
  EMBEDDED WITHIN ERN TROUGH WILL DO LIKEWISE...ITS CENTER MOVING EWD
  ACROSS STL AREA BY END OF PERIOD.
 
  ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE...ANALYZED AT 23Z OVER NRN MO...IS FCST TO
  MOVE EWD TO ESEWD OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN IL BY 26/12Z...WITH
  QUASISTATIONARY SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE NEWD ACROSS SERN ONT AND ST
  LAWRENCE VALLEY.  SFC COLD FRONT -- ANALYZED FROM LOW SEWD OVER ERN
  OZARKS THEN SWWD ACROSS E TX -- IS EXPECTED TO REACH WRN TN...SERN
  AR...NRN LA AND S-CENTRAL TX BY END OF PERIOD.
 
  ...GREAT LAKES TO LOWER MS VALLEY...
  SVR TSTM OUTBREAK...INCLUDING SEVERAL TORNADIC AND POTENTIALLY
  TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...PERSISTS FROM SRN AR TO IL ASSOCIATED WITH
  PRE-COLD FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...WITH LOBE EXTENDING EWD INTO OH
  S OF QUASISTATIONARY FRONT.  NRN PORTION OF MS VALLEY/IL BAND IS
  UNDERGOING QLCS TRANSITION WITH ENHANCED DAMAGING GUST
  THREAT...WHILE EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/MESOCIRCULATIONS STILL CAN
  PRODUCE TORNADOES.  ENHANCED DAMAGING WIND THREAT EXISTS WITH QLCS
  NEAR AND S OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WAS ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL IL
  ACROSS S-CENTRAL INDIANA TO SWRN OH.  MEANWHILE MORE DISCRETE OR
  CLUSTERED STORM MODES SHOULD PERSIST FOR LONGER PERIOD OF TIME
  FARTHER S.  REF SPC WWS 370...371...AND 373-375...AS WELL AS
  ACCOMPANYING MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS...FOR LATEST NEAR-TERM FCST
  GUIDANCE ON THIS EVENT.
 
  SVR THREAT WILL SHIFT EWD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND EXTEND THROUGH
  MOST OF TONIGHT...WITH ONLY GRADUAL SFC COOLING OVER THOSE PORTIONS
  OF WARM SECTOR NOT STABILIZED BY EXTENSIVE CONVECTION.  RICH
  MOISTURE AND HIGH THETAE WILL PERSIST IN PRE-STORM INFLOW
  REGION...HELPING TO MAINTAIN EFFECTIVELY SFC-BASED INFLOW PARCELS IN
  ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY VERY FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.
  MOREOVER...LLJ IS FCST TO INTENSIFY SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING FROM TN
  VALLEY REGION NEWD OVER OH...FURTHER STRENGTHENING 0-1 KM AGL
  SHEAR/SRH AND ENLARGING HODOGRAPHS IN SUPPORT OF SIGNIFICANT-SVR
  THREAT.
 
  ..EDWARDS.. 05/26/2011
 
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Risk is east of MS River today and mostly around OH River - JAC, 5/26/2011, 6:25 am
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