SE TN, N AL, & NW GA
Posted by JAC on 5/26/2011, 10:04 am






ESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0977
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0756 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2011
 
  AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME EASTERN MS AND NORTHERN AL/SOUTHEAST
  TN/NORTHWEST GA
 
  CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
 
  VALID 261256Z - 261430Z
 
  A SEVERE THREAT...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO AND
  DAMAGING WINDS...MAY INCREASE EARLY TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME
  EASTERN MS INTO MUCH OF NORTHERN AL/NORTHWEST GA AND SOUTHEAST TN.
  CLOSELY MONITORING CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WATCH.
 
  WITHIN A BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE...A PERSISTENT CORRIDOR OF
  TSTMS FROM FAR NORTHEAST MS INTO NORTHERN AL/EAST-CENTRAL TN HAS
  SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF INCREASE OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. CONTINUED
  GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS/JET ENTRANCE REGION ALOFT...COUPLED WITH A
  HEATING/DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...SHOULD ONLY CONTRIBUTE TO A
  SPATIAL/INTENSITY INCREASE OF DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH THE MORNING
  ACROSS PORTIONS OF AL INTO GA/EASTERN TN. THE 12Z BIRMINGHAM
  OBSERVED RAOB WAS INDICATIVE OF A VERY UNSTABLE/WEAKLY CAPPED
  AIRMASS /2200 J PER KG MLCAPE/ THAT EXISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
  REGION...WITH THE RESIDUAL INFLUENCE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW ACROSS
  NORTHERN AL INTO TN EXPECTED TO MODIFY/DESTABILIZE WITH TIME.
  ALTHOUGH WINDS WITHIN THE LOWEST FEW KM ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
  VEER/WEAKEN WITH TIME INTO MIDDAY...STRONG DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY
  FLOW COUPLED WITH INITIALLY AMPLE LOW LEVEL SRH WILL SUPPORT A BOW
  ECHO/SUPERCELL THREAT WITH ASSOCIATED TORNADO POTENTIAL IN ADDITION
  TO DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME SEVERE HAIL.
 
  ..GUYER.. 05/26/2011
 
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Risk is east of MS River today and mostly around OH River - JAC, 5/26/2011, 6:25 am
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