Severe Storms forecasted Sunday
Posted by JAC on 6/15/2011, 9:22 am





DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0358 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2011
 
  VALID 181200Z - 231200Z
 
  ...DISCUSSION...
  MODELS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
  CENTRAL INTO NRN PLAINS ON DAY 4 /SAT JUN 18/.  HOWEVER...GREATER
  AGREEMENT EXISTS ON DAY 5 FOR A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
  MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN/FOUR CORNERS REGION ON DAY 4 TO TRACK
  ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY ON DAY 5 /SUN JUN 19/.
  MODERATE-VERY STRONG INSTABILITY /MUCAPE 2000-4000 J PER KG/ IS
  EXPECTED FROM ERN NEB/IA TO THE ERN DAKOTAS/MN...WITH INCREASING
  DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-50 KT AS A 50+ KT SWLY MIDLEVEL JET REACHES
  NEB TO MN BY PEAK HEATING ON SUNDAY.  GIVEN MODEL AGREEMENT...THESE
  FACTORS SUPPORT A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FROM THE MID MO
  VALLEY TO ERN DAKOTAS/MN.
 
  BEYOND DAY 5...THE 15/00Z GFS INDICATES A THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
  ACROSS THE UPPER MS TO LOWER MO VALLEYS ON DAY 6 /MON JUN 20/...
  WHILE THE 15/00Z ECMWF SUGGESTS THIS SAME REGION AND SWWD INTO ERN
  KS TO OK FOR DAY 7 /TUE JUN 21/.  GIVEN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN
  THE MODELS WITH THE ENEWD EJECTION OF THE WRN TROUGH INTO THE NORTH
  CENTRAL STATES...A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER AREA WILL NOT BE INCLUDED
  FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOK.
 
  ..PETERS.. 06/15/2011
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A Looming Flood Disaster from the Mighty Mo? - JAC, 6/10/2011, 2:51 pm
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