GFS still forecasting heavy shear with a broad LLC
Posted by
JAC on 6/23/2011, 5:34 am
One way or the other, theta-e forecast is showing heavy juice coming into the area.
IMHO this all depends on how the convection does over the Yucatan and the timing of the wave.
If the wave pretty much passes over the Yucatan in the late afternoon, there will be a lot of instability to fire heavy convection.
That convection could get out in the water and help to push shear out of the water.
If the wave crosses the Yucatan in the morning, it will be a different story.
Convection will most likely be weak and this could mean a weak system in the BOC.


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69
In this thread:
Another Shot for the BOC? -
JAC,
6/22/2011, 7:04 am- 12Z GFS - Poof - JAC, 6/24/2011, 2:59 pm
- Current Steering Thinking - JAC, 6/24/2011, 8:19 am
- FIM - JAC, 6/24/2011, 8:22 am
- Re: Another Shot for the BOC? - ArgosyTn, 6/23/2011, 4:52 pm
- 12Z Euro - JAC, 6/23/2011, 4:36 pm
- Wave is firing nicely in high shear south of Hispaniola - JAC, 6/23/2011, 4:19 pm
- Houston NWS Discussion - JAC, 6/23/2011, 8:33 am
- 55 to 60 K-ft cell already firing with heavy rain-rate - JAC, 6/23/2011, 8:14 am
- 00Z CMC goes Deep Warm-Core - JAC, 6/23/2011, 5:23 am
- Re: Another Shot for the BOC? - ricksterpr, 6/22/2011, 3:25 pm
- Re: Another Shot for the BOC? - tracker, 6/22/2011, 1:30 pm
- TC Formation Probability - JAC, 6/22/2011, 10:08 am
- MJO Peaking Next Week - JAC, 6/22/2011, 8:44 am
- 00Z GFS has borderline warm-core - JAC, 6/22/2011, 8:14 am
- Not forecast as a TC at the moment - JAC, 6/22/2011, 7:16 am
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