Re: model discussion
Posted by
TuffyE on 8/2/2011, 11:09 am
These seem to be the first runs in which the dynamic models were really initialized with this feature. We are seeing pretty much the "default" tracks from the Big 3, it seems to me. UKMET pretty much insists on a NW track after 12 hours. HWRF and GFDL have more northerly route and hit the gravity of that "magic point" between Charleston and Bermuda when they get above the Bahamas. They almost always seem to look like this at this point. They always seem to get to this point by underestimating the western persistence of developing systems.
In this case the HWRF seems to be quickest to recognize that persistence, but has to quickly yank it north to account for it's own internal "climatology". GFDL will shift east and west with it's northern track between day and night as it overemphasizes current intensity at initialization. UK will do the same with it's NW track, but be closer because it doesn't need to force the turn north. The official forecast will stay between those two and shift west as they ultimately do. Finally, in this case, the GFDL will HIT the northern turn that this girl IS going to make out of the Carib. once she is strong enough to feel those upper flows. Personally, I think this is pretty similar to the NHC forecast, but that they will have to shift it west close to 100 miles over Eastern Cuba....a good fact for South Florida. With that turn, the forecast may be on the EASTER edge of the models with a more northerly track. It's hard for them to turn left from that, but the water is warm and it should be an attention-getter trying to reform after Cuba. A stall in off northern Fla wouldn't be out of the question, but it's a little early in the season for that, probably.
In other words, as always, the HWRF will do well except for that Day 5 gravity thing (which will be about right but not at that angle) and the NHC forecast will be as good as there is while trying not to show "disrespect" for any of the models OR create any unwarranted panic. IMO, this one will see action in SE Florida, but with a glancing blow from a humbled storm. I'll give it 20% of staying further west in the Carib and making the UK look good into the Gulf and 20% of committing Dominican suicide and making the current GFDL look good.
Of course, this is a bit tongue-in-cheek and more about model tendencies than the actual conditions, but that was the topic.
|
152
In this thread:
model discussion -
BobbiStorm,
8/1/2011, 9:47 pm Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.