Re: Looking East ... nothing out there
Posted by Skip Wiley on 8/4/2011, 10:59 pm
It's just the calm before the storm according to NOAA

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2011/20110804_update_atlantichurricaneoutlook.html

Key climate factors predicted in May continue to support an active season. These include: the tropical multi-decadal signal, which since 1995 has brought favorable ocean and atmospheric conditions, leading to more active seasons; exceptionally warm Atlantic Ocean temperatures (the third warmest on record); and the possible redevelopment of La Niña.  Reduced vertical wind shear and lower air pressure across the tropical Atlantic also favor an active season.

Based on these conditions and on climate model forecasts, the confidence for an above-normal season has increased from 65 percent in May to 85 percent. Also, the expected number of named storms has increased from 12-18 in May to 14-19, and the expected number of hurricanes has increased from 6-10 in May to 7-10.

Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the whole season - June 1 to November 30 - NOAA's updated seasonal outlook projects, with a 70 percent probability, a total of:

   14 to 19 named storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including:
   7 to 10 hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which:
   3 to 5 could be major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)

These ranges are indicative of an active season, and extend well above the long-term seasonal averages of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
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Looking East ... nothing out there - AlligatorPointer, 8/4/2011, 6:02 pm
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