StormW's thoughts
Posted by CypressTX on 8/8/2011, 11:16 am
I like reading his blog

INVEST 92L SYNOPSIS AUG 08, 2011 ISSUED 10:45 A.M. EDT
Posted on August 8, 2011 by palmharborforecastcenter
Good day all!

It appears that the Navy has lost interest in 92L today..there have been no new position update since yesterday evening.

Satellite imagery indicates the center of 92L is near 11.0N30.0W. The loop imagery shows a big cyclonic envelope.

EUMETSAT  


RAMSDIS LINKED LOOP  


Convection is mainly limited at the moment, in the Monsoon Trof, in which cyclonic turning is also noted.  The wave continues to move slowly to the west, and I expect a general west to WNW motion to continue for the next 72 hours.

The current wind shear map from CIMSS shows a small upper level anticyclone over the system, and the current GFS wind shear forecast indicates upper level winds may become more conducive, expanding more over the area in the next 48-72 hours.

CIMSS WIND SHEAR EATL  


GFS ZONAL SHEAR FORECAST  


Albeit dry air is noted to the north, the wave axis lies in a good are of TPW, and I don't think the dry air will be too much of an issue down the road, especially if it gets to warmer sst's,  although it will hinder development somewhat over the next few days.

TPW LOOP  


Based upon my analysis, I still believe we may see a tropical depression from this, albeit not real soon.

I will be monitoring this area closely.

Eslwhere, a tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles, has the LLC exposed, and is noted moving WNW in satellite loop imageryalthoug it is heading for an upper level anticyclone, I am not expecting any development due to a vast amount of surrounding dry air.

CATL SATELLITE LINK  


Tropical Storm formation is not expected through Tuesday.

T. F. "STORM" WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST/TROPICAL FORECASTER
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS (webmaster)
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
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apparently we have 92L - Shalista, 8/8/2011, 8:55 am
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