97L Analysis
Posted by
Jake on 8/19/2011, 5:11 pm
The system has become better defined on visible imagery since early this morning. A gradual expansion of the cloud canopy has taken place. In addition, scattered storms have been forming and signs of banding in the convection has started in the last few hours. Although most of the spin is in the mid-levels, as convection gathers, it will work down towards the surface. A sign of the begin of a surface circulation appears underway, as small streamer cumulus are inflowing towards the possible center forming near 15N-51W. Here's the banding cloud pattern is converging and not further to the SE.
Now that the disturbance is passing 50W, the ocean is warmer and this increases latent heat levels marketly. This will help neutralize the dry air to the N and W of the system. In addition, shear is 5-10kts and an upper high is building westward, as WV loops show the upper trough N of PR backing NW. Model guidance builds an upper high along the track and with strong outflow channels later in the period. Finally, the the diurnal pulse will further destablize the tropopause and if convection holds through the night we might have a TD forming by tomorrow afternoon or evening.
Note: Bouy recently showed a 1008mb presure winds NE 20mph. |
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