Synopsis on Irene in the making
Posted by
canetrakker on 8/20/2011, 1:28 pm
| It is going to be a interesting up coming week with this system 97l.. I live in Miami so this is one that I am watching closely.. For many days now models have been suggesting that a tropical system will either directly affect or be very close to South Fla next week.. Looking at these models this scenario can very well happen.. 1. It's mid August, 'tis the season. 2. Though there has been a persistent trough on the east coast of the U.S.. the forecast suggest that it will be very weak, the actual low center will be way up in Hudson Bay leaving a mainly zonal flow & general weakness over the eastern U.S. as we move into next week.. It appears there will not be a big trough moving off the east coast next week.. 3. The Atlantic high will be holding its own & looks like even shifting west slightly.. If this system were approaching directly from the east I could see where there is a chance that the high would'nt be strong enough to drive this into Florida with the weakness in place... The problem here is the system should be approaching from the south or southeast.. The combination of the high in place & the general weakness in the northeast U.S & mid-atlantic is what you need for a storm forecast to be in the Caribbean in the vicinity of Cuba to turn NWstrly & northerly & affect Fla.. note that some models barely weaken the storm when it interacts with the land masses of the Greater Antilles.. this is probably because the upper levels will be highly favorable & the system will be moving fast enough to not stay over land for too long a time.. I think the ingredients are in place for a formidable storm affecting Fla.. these consistent model runs can't be ignored. How strong will it be & where will it exactly strike? we will have to see about that.. A lot can change from here on in.. Let's see... |
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Synopsis on Irene in the making - canetrakker, 8/20/2011, 1:28 pm Post A Reply
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