Re: Synopsis on Irene in the making
Posted by beachman80 on 8/20/2011, 1:59 pm
I think it's still really too far out to predict where this is going. It does look like this has Cuba written all over it down the road, though. I think 3 days from now, the talk is going to be "How long will this stay over Cuba." The fact the center seems to be forming on the south side of the convection and appears to be moving due west right now may keep it just south of the big terrain in Hispanola. However, I don't think it's gonna dodge Cuba.

Now, what I find interesting about the two models that just came out within the last hour, the GFS and CMC, is that they pull this North or Northwest down the road, but not turning northeast. CMC takes this into the eastern gulf and takes aim at the panhandle 6-7 days from now whereas the GFS is hinting at more of a Florida City/Naples vicinity landfall and then going right up the gut of the state. Both have it pretty strong.

But I really do think the huge factor in this down the road is going to be Cuba and how much time it spends over it.
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Synopsis on Irene in the making - canetrakker, 8/20/2011, 1:28 pm
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