Re: GFS Shifts Right...Spares Fla
Posted by Jake on 8/21/2011, 4:51 pm
G,

Unlike Andrew and Katrina for example, they were tracking West arcoss Fl. The sub-tropical ridge was in place weakened and replaced by an eastern CONUS high over the Canolina's.  However, Irene will be steered WNW by the sub-tropical ridge through the first 72hrs as its currently building westward. The trough/weakness your are referring to, is lifting NE.

A second shortwave will weaken the ridge and be replaced by a CONUS high which will weaken as a stronger shortwave pushes the ridge SE. This is where the track differs, instead of moving West, the storm will turn NW- NNW. This places all of Florida's East coast in the strike zone.
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GFS Shifts Right...Spares Fla - canetrakker, 8/21/2011, 12:19 pm
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