| The storm moved over PR last night and intensified prior to landfall with sustained winds of 75mph and higher gusts. There's no question ,that the diurnal pulse, high OHC and a conducive light shear environment aided the process. This afternoon the system appears to have entrained dry air, as several outflow boundries were observed pushing away from the outer edge of the cloud canopy. In addtion, the track over PR and the proximity to the DM afected the overall structure as she lost some of the symmetry in the cloud pattern. During the last few images before sun set, a robust burst of convection began to fire over the center, as yet again the diurnal pulse is helping to neutralize the dry air. Latent heat increases over the warm oceans, which in turn help upward motion around her strong vortmax. Irene as of 8pm is now a Cat 2 100mph winds pressure 981mb.. The next 48-72hrs Irene will continue on a general WNW track @ 12-14mph or 280-290 degrees. Currently, a narrow mid-level ridge is north of Irene and extends westward to just east of south florida, it extends north to just south of 29.0N in the 700-600mb level. In addtion , heights in Bermuda have remained stable and surface pressures as well @ 1018mb. Track and Intensity: Irene has slowed during the last few hours due a reorganization of the center and convective burst, as the center lost most of the convection during the afternoon. But, the WNW motion will resume @ 12mph. The advertised mid-latitude trough later in the period that will enduce the strong pullward motion appears to be weaker than most of the dynamical and global models are depicting. Therefore, she will continue further WNW before making the NW -N turn as heights will fall across the SE CONUS, but not as sharp. A gradual turn is in line and Irene's center will come over the cenrtal Fl coast or 50 miles or less off shore. She will be a major cane with winds south of 27N between 120-140mph all aided by a large upper high and very high OHC..... Slow weakeniing will begin after crossing 30N. This forecast is left and stronger than the NHC's forecast. |