Re: Hurricane Irene Analysis
Posted by
TuffyE on 8/22/2011, 9:03 pm
I can't argue with your knowledge or presentation, but I think that she has been moving closer to 305 at 15+ for the last 3 hours...as I play with Google Earth from the Tropical Atlantic presentation. They show the forecast to include that leg since 5. They have her turning left from this point, but I sure don't see it. NHC says near or over T&C...That's the OTHER way from GFDL and NOT over T&C. GFDL IS often an outlier, but in the other direction and not nearly as consistent as it has been this time. It usually comes into its own by seeing the recurvature ahead of the masses.
All I can see to bring about your forecast is that mid-level ridge you mention above her but it doesn't look much different than what was supposed to keep her south of PR and Hisp. You think that will be enough to turn her? I'm with you completely if I thought she WAS already moving between 280-290. Every model and forecast has asked her to for days and days but she hasn't really been that flat for very long since well east of Martinique, has she?
Heck..sorry...I feel arguementative and I realize I'm talking in front of those who know much more than I do. I just want to see something to really make this thing go west other than a model that we rely on and concern for South Florida complacency. If Miami and the GFDL weren't there, I don't see anyone, including NHC, driving this thing west despite all evidence to the contrary. Still, I AM sorry and will chill overnight and tomorrow.
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Hurricane Irene Analysis -
Jake,
8/22/2011, 8:27 pm Post A Reply
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