Re: Model preformance
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 8/23/2011, 9:27 am
I don't widely publicize the model error pages. They are rather tricky to explain.

And the intensity model error is extra difficult to explain because some of the data being compared shouldn't be compared. For example, a model like the GFS doesn't forecast the maximum intensity but the GFDL will. (I think because the resolution of a global model is not good enough to determine the highest wind.) If the GFS or its ensemble members are doing a better job on intensity someone might think the next time the GFS or its ensemble members present a weak forecast that they should trust that over the models actually trying to forecast peak intensity and that would be inaccurate.

For anyone who wants to learn more about how my site does model error, read the most boring page you'll ever find:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/models/data.cgi?page=modelerror
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Model preformance - Fred, 8/23/2011, 9:01 am
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