Check this dicussion out.....
Posted by
Shalista on 8/24/2011, 11:45 am
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
.DISCUSSION...
WINDS ARE ALREADY ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH GUSTS INTO
THE MID 20 KNOTS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE BEGINNING A SLOW DECLINE.
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD THIS IDEA COVERED WELL SO NO CHANGES NEEDED
THERE. OTHERWISE EXPECTING LOTS OF SUN TODAY WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION WITH HIGHS COOLER THAN
TUE.
THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT WAVES
IN OPEN WATERS AND ALONG SOUTHEAST SHORES OF DEVILS LAKE...THE RED
LAKES...AND LAKE OF THE WOODS. WAVES COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 4
FEET.
&&
.AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WINDS AS FEW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS...SLOWLY LEVELING OFF LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2011/
DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE WIND
TODAY THEN MINOR PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH REMAINDER OF
SHORT TERM. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH PERIOD AND WILL
USE BLEND FOR FORECAST.
COLD FRONT THROUGH FORECAST AREA WITH LESS HUMID AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY IN ITS WAKE. MAIN PUSH OF RESPECTABLE
COLD ADVECTION LEVELS OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERING
WIND...MODELS CONSISTENT WITH AROUND 30KTS AVAILABLE THROUGH MIXED
LAYER WITH WINDS RELAXING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WITH TIMING OF
FAVORED COLD ADVECTION AND PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT FIRST HALF
OF DAY FEEL IT WILL BE WINDY BUT SHOULD REMAIN BLO ADVISORY
CRITERIA. WITH FULL SOLAR OFF SETTING COLD ADVECTION FEEL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE CLOSE TO AVERAGE.
SURFACE HIGH CROSSES FA OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW SETTING UP
ACROSS WEST HALF OF FA BY MORNING. WITH SKC...LIGHT MIXING AND DRY
LOW LEVELS TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 50S EXPECTED.
FOR THURSDAY INCREASING RETURN FLOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM
ADVECTION/SURFACE MOISTURE FLUX RETURNS ACROSS FA AHEAD OF NEXT COLD
FRONT. COLUMN REMAINS FAIRLY DRY SO SOLAR SHOULD AID IN BOOSTING
TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE AVERAGE.
COLD FRONT CROSSES FA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL JET NOT
REAL IMPRESSIVE AND MAIN UPPER SUPPORT NORTH OF BORDER SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND CAPE FOR POTENTIAL OF SCATTERED MAINLY NON SEVERE
THUNDER.
COULD SEE SOME LINGERING PCPN ACROSS EASTERN FA EARLY FRIDAY WITH
MOST AREA DRY BEHIND FRONT AND TRIMMED POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BACK
DOWN CLOSER TO LATE SUMMER AVERAGES.
LONG TERM [SATURDAY - SUNDAY NIGHT]...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND WHEN A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS FAIRLY REASONABLE WITH TIMING AND DEGREE OF PCPN...SO INCREASED
POPS FOR THIS UPDATE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVER FROM THE PCPN.
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