Potential to Be Catastrophic
Posted by
Stedwoo on 8/25/2011, 7:43 pm
I posted last night about the IKE number being similar to Hurricane Ike numbers when it hit Galveston area. Some of that storm surge damage was typical of a Saffir-Simpson scale 5 hurricane. Looking at the anticipated storm surge damage in NY City with a CAT-3, which is what the IKE scale is pointing at in storm surge potential, of 28 feet of water at La Guardia it will get ugly if it only half that bad. Loosing 2 major airports for days or weeks will have a long lasting impact on the whole US economy and on transportation in the entire Northeast.
I am a big believer of the IKE scale as it is a better predictor of storm surge damage than Saffir-Simpson scale is. Right now the GFS is a better scenario for a larger number of people than the NAM, GFDL or HWRF are showing. While the GFS shows more wind and rain over a larger populated area with an inland run, with the NAM and HWRF they are showing a glancing blow to North Carolina and a direct hit near Long Island. It this happens the storm surge will directly into the lower bay and Long Island sound sending water into New York City.
I don't wish bad things on anyone but if this storm does not get some of its punch taken out of it by the outer banks and or inland North Carolina this could be a get ugly as to the amount of damage. This could be the biggest test of FEMA since Katrina if not bigger. It will impact a larger population area and much greater financial damage if this things stays together for a full East Coast run from the Carolina's to the New England area.
IF you live in this area or know someone who does take this thing seriously as they have nothing which to compare it too. Also better hope FEMA is ready, NO POLITICAL COMMENTS ON THIS, or we will wish for Katrina aftermath compared to this.
Stedwoo |
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8/25/2011, 11:52 am Post A Reply
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