Re: Nor'easter Sun- Mon !!!!
Posted by
Fred on 4/20/2012, 1:31 pm
COMPLEX SITUATION SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH SPLIT
UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC BY MON MORNING. NRN BRANCH OF UPR TROUGH AXIS
WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH CNTRL AND NRN SECTIONS OF THE EAST
COAST FROM SAT INTO SUN WHILE THE SRN BRANCH DIGS INTO THE CNTRL
GULF COAST POSSIBLY CLOSING OFF A MID LEVEL CENTER. AS THE SRN
BRANCH OF THE TROUGH LIFTS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON
SUNDAY...FAST NW FLOW ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. WILL ALLOW THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW INVOF THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...POSSIBLY PHASING WITH THE DEPARTING SRN STREAM ENERGY.
THE RESULT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP SURFACE LOW RIDING UP
THE EAST COAST AND SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN CONUS.
MODELS HAVE YET TO LOCK IN ON A SPECIFIC LOCATION FOR THE UPPER
LOW/SURFACE LOW WITH RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY EVIDENT.
HOWEVER...THERE IS DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS FOR A DAY 3
FORECAST...WITH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A SLGT RISK OF
EXCEEDING FFG FROM THE NYC METRO AREA INTO COASTAL NEW ENGLAND. ON
DAY 2...STRONG UPR DIFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE SRN UPPER TROUGH ALONG
WITH FAVORABLE JET ORIENTATION/DIVERGENCE SHOULD PROVIDE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE ERN GULF COAST INTO FLORIDA. DEEP MOISTURE
WILL BE STREAMING NORTH AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS...OVERRUNNING A
WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF EARLY
SAT WITH LARGE SPREAD NOTED IN THE MODEL QPF. AFTERWARD...DEEP
LAYERED SRLY FLOW AND POSSIBLE TRAINING WILL ORIENT ACROSS THE
EXTREME EAST COAST ON DAY 3...SLIDING NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND ATOP
THE AFOREMENTIONED NRN STREAM FRONT. FOLLOWED THE CURRENT MIDDLE
OF THE ROAD LOCATION WITH RESPECT TO MODEL SPREAD LED BY THE
12/00Z ECMWF WITH CONSIDERATION OF THE 00Z GFS/UKMET.
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Nor'easter Sun- Mon !!!! -
Fred,
4/20/2012, 12:51 pm Post A Reply
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