Re: Nor'easter Sun- Mon !!!!
Posted by Skip Wiley on 4/20/2012, 1:59 pm
Good luck Fred.  Looks like south Florida will get the first taste of it


This is an interesting set up.  We maybe get one of these every year or two. I recall having supercells come in off the GOM in the past with systems like this.  

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  1218 PM CDT FRI APR 20 2012
 
  VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
 
  ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE FL
  PENINSULA...
 
  ...SYNOPSIS...
  AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A 70 KT
  MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX APPROACHING THE FL KEYS BY 00Z. LOW PRESSURE WILL
  ALSO DEEPEN OVER THE ERN GULF...WITH SLY FLOW MAINTAINING LOW LEVEL
  MOISTURE OVER THE PENINSULA. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND STORMS WILL OCCUR
  AS A RESULT...THROUGH THE PERIOD INCLUDING OVERNIGHT.
 
  TO THE N...A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM
  THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE APPALACHIANS WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
  FROM ERN PA INTO WRN VA AND NC.
 
  ...FL...
  VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT WILL INCREASE ACROSS FL DURING THE
  DAY AND INTO THE EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE ERN GULF
  AND THE UPPER LOW NEARS. RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
  ONGOING...AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. INSTABILITY OVERALL
  WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE...BUT HODOGRAPHS WILL LENGTHEN AND
  BECOME FAVORABLE FOR ROTATION. CONVERGENCE MAY BE MAXIMIZED ALONG A
  BOUNDARY OVER THE N CNTRL PENINSULA DURING THE DAY...WITH SPORADIC
  DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER CONCENTRATED AREA OF STORMS
  MAY BE WITH THE VORT MAX...PERHAPS IN AN ARCING LINE...AS IT MOVES
  ASHORE. SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR EMBEDDED COUPLETS
  WITH ENHANCED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL AND A FEW TORNADOES.
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Nor'easter Sun- Mon !!!! - Fred, 4/20/2012, 12:51 pm
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