HPC Friday afternoon discussion on 96L
Posted by
DTB_2009 on 6/22/2012, 3:57 pm
Keep at least one eye on this thing...
FINAL...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THE FINAL ISSUANCE OF MEDIUM
RANGE FORECASTS. THE 12Z GFS SHIFTED SLOWER THAN ITS 06Z RUN WITH
THE ENERGY EJECTING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DAYS 3-4...WHICH
BOOSTED CONFIDENCE IN USING THE SLOWER 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION EARLY IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...DETERMINISTIC
MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOME SORT OF AGREEMENT WITH STRENGTHENING A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND THEN STAIR-STEPPING IT
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE TEXAS COAST...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE 12Z
GFS WHICH TRACKS THE LOW NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH FLORIDA.
HOWEVER...THE LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE 00Z ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
STILL INDICATE A GREAT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM.
WEATHER-WISE ACROSS THE CONUS...
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE WILL HEAT THINGS UP OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S....WHILE TROUGHS ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST AND WEST COASTS
SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS PLEASANTLY COOL DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BE A THREAT ALL ALONG
COASTAL REGIONS FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA.
JAMES/GERHARDT
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