here's the hpc 7-day loop
Posted by
cypresstx on 6/23/2012, 4:09 pm
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html
"CONCERNING THE DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO...THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH ITS NORTHEASTWARD
TRACK...AND ITS 06Z RUN WAS EVEN QUICKER TO BRING THE LOW ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...MODEL
CONSENSUS...INCLUDING THE 00Z GEFS MEAN...CONTINUES TO FAVOR IDEA
OF THE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND THEN
MOVING WESTWARD TOWARDS SOUTH TEXAS.
DESPITE THE AGREEMENT AMONG DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE
MEANS...INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE GEFS/ECMWF/CMC STILL
INDICATE A LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITH THE FLATTENING OF FLOW OVER
THE NORTHERN CONUS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WITH THE
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF. FOR NOW...THE
FORECAST RELIES ON THE CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN. THIS SOLUTION BEST REPRESENTS MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT GIVEN
THE LARGE AMOUNT OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD AFTER DAY 4...MORE WEIGHT WAS
GIVEN TOWARDS THE ECMWF MEAN LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS
REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCES FORECAST...ESPECIALLY AFTER DAY 4.
MAJOR CHANGES IN THE GULF WILL NOT BE MADE UNTIL AFTER THE 17Z
NHC/HPC COORDINATION CALL.
" |
190
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Warning area? -
LawKat,
6/23/2012, 3:56 pm Post A Reply
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