upper level trough
Posted by cypresstx on 7/10/2012, 1:20 pm
mentioned in the latest discussion:


Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
AXNT20 KNHC 101710
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1645 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W FROM 12N TO 22N.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 22N BETWEEN 30W AND 34W...
IN NEARBY LOW CLOUDS.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 25N70W
TO 18N70W IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
28N68W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 66W AND 68W...SCATTERED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE IS FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 66W AND 75W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDERS OF SENEGAL
AND GAMBIA NEAR 13N16W...TO 13N23W AND 8N40W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 8N40W TO 6N50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 32W AND
41W...FROM 6N TO 7N WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 45W...AND
FROM LAND TO 10N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W...WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 23W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS NEAR 31N84W IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TO A GULF OF MEXICO 25N85W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
TO A 19N98W SOUTHERN MEXICO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS
THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE
EAST OF 85W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG COVERS THE BAHAMAS FROM CUBA TO 28N BETWEEN 74W AND
80W...ISOLATED MODERATE IS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT
GOES FROM 22N97W TO 19N92W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA.

THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THAT IS IN MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA...REACHES LOUISIANA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF 88W.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO COASTS OF LOUISIANA AND
TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 29N73W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TO AN EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 27N84W...TOWARD THE LOWER TEXAS GULF OF MEXICO COAST.

NO 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE OBSERVED AND/OR
FORECAST FOR THE PRESENT TIME.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA...TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 79W. THE CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE SAME AREA THAT IS TO THE
NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 79W. SOME OF THAT PRECIPITATION HAS
BEEN SHEARED DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS OR SO BY THE UPPER LEVEL
WIND FLOW. A CELL OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA...
NEAR UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF THE LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS RELATED TO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN 28N68W CYCLONIC CENTER.

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 10N73W IN COLOMBIA...
TO 9N80W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 9N84W IN COSTA RICA. NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 11N
BETWEEN 80W ALONG THE PANAMA COAST AND 83W ALONG THE COSTA
RICA/NICARAGUA BORDER.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
10/1200 UTC FOR SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO WAS 0.58 OF AN INCH.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
20 TO 25 KNOT WIND SPEEDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 11 FEET
FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 67W AND 81W. THE WIND SPEEDS ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS AT 48 HOURS FROM
11N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 79W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N29W TO A 30N33W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 26N35W...TO A 28N50W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO A 28N68W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...
TO A GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IS FROM 25N TO 27N
BETWEEN 66W AND 68W...SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO
30N BETWEEN 66W AND 75W...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 23N TO
28N BETWEEN 51W AND 58W.

AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 25N42W 19N43W 16N48W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N58W...TO 29N73W...TO AN
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 27N84W...TOWARD THE LOWER TEXAS GULF OF MEXICO COAST.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THREE
AREAS OF 20 KNOT WIND SPEEDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS. ONE
AREA IS TO THE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 68W AND 74W. A SECOND
AREA IS FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 35W AND 60W. A THIRD AREA
IS TO THE SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT







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Southeastern GOMEX? - LawKat, 7/10/2012, 1:10 pm
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