Re: we have Ernesto
Posted by LawKat on 8/2/2012, 7:00 pm
Ok, so now what does he want to do?

In less than 24 hours, Ernesto will be inside the Windward Island chain, and the next stop will be some landmass, somewhere.

That much is certain.  It might be an island, it might be South or Central America, or it might be the U.S. mainland, BUT it WILL be somewhere.

I have always had concern once they get inside the island chains, people just don't fathom, (even a weak tropical storm), that the storm has to cross some landmass.

I am curious to know others' thoughts.  

My feeling is that this, in whatever form it takes, is destined for the GOMEX.  Past that, from northern Mexico to Key West is in play.  My best best is from extreme east Texas to around Mississippi.  That is more than 1500 miles away, in some cases 2000 miles, and a week or more away.

The ridge is strong but it does have a western end, which flanks around Cuba's western end right now.  It is very strong and broad.  Should it hold, this will drive this storm into the GOMEX, as the NHC track suggests.
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we have Ernesto - cypresstx, 8/2/2012, 4:02 pm
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