DISCO
Posted by Fred on 10/26/2012, 9:05 am
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POTENTIAL FOR A DANGEROUS COASTAL STORM EARLY NEXT WEEK...

COMPLEX UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES IS FORECAST TO BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A REX BLOCK DOWNSTREAM OVER
THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WILL INHIBIT THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF ANY
SYSTEMS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND NOAM. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
TO UPPER FEATURES INCLUDING JUST HOW NEGATIVELY TILTED THE UPPER
TROUGH BECOMES WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE EXACT TRACK OF SANDY.

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE
AFFECTED BY IMPACTS FROM SANDY. 00Z/26 MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SHOW
LANDFALL OF THIS SYSTEM ANYWHERE BETWEEN THE DELMARVA TO
MAINE...ALTHOUGH THE HURRICANE MODELS INDICATE A MORE CONCENTRATED
CLUSTERING BETWEEN EASTERN LONG ISLAND TO THE TIP OF THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BEYOND SUNDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST NHC
GUIDANCE. THE LATEST NHC GUIDANCE TAKES SANDY INTO THE SOUTHERN NJ/
DELMARVA COAST LATE MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING...ALTHOUGH WHETHER THE
STORM WILL BE POST-TROPICAL BY THIS POINT REMAINS IN QUESTION.
NEVER-THE-LESS...THE STORM IS VERY LARGE AND REGARDLESS WHETHER IT
IS TROPICAL OR NOT WILL STILL BE A POWERFUL AND HISTORIC STORM IN
THE NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY RESULT IN SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN ZONES SAT NIGHT...WITH RAIN BANDS FROM SANDY
ALSO APPROACHING FROM THE S. EASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AS
THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WITH THE INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST
FLOW AND A NEW MOON EXPECTED ON MONDAY...COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS
MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS SUNDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AND ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST FROM LATE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUE ATTM WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SPEEDS OF
45-50G70-80MPH...SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN ELEVATED LOCATIONS. WHAT MAKES
THIS ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS IS THAT THIS COULD BE A PROLONGED
EVENT...WITH WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE LASTING ANYWHERE FROM 18-30
HOURS. THIS WOULD BATTER THE COASTS...LEADING TO WIDESPREAD DOWNED
TREES AND POWER LINES AND POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING
AND BEACH EROSION. STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE EXACT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...BUT FLOODING RAINS ARE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY.

ONCE AGAIN...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THIS FORECAST WITH THE
GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTING MANY DIFFERENT LOW TRACK SCENARIOS. REFER
TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE LATEST TRACK AND FORECASTS.

&&
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NYC PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS AND DISCUSSIONS - Fred, 10/26/2012, 9:04 am
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