All of New York State 10/26 PM disco
Posted by Fred on 10/26/2012, 5:21 pm
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
452 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012


DANGEROUS COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...

COMPLEX UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES IS
FORECAST TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A REX
BLOCK DOWNSTREAM OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WILL INHIBIT THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF ANY SYSTEMS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
NOAM. THE COMBINATION OF THESE UPPER FEATURES WILL ULTIMATELY
DETERMINE THE EXACT TRACK OF SANDY.

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE
AFFECTED BY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM SANDY. THE HURRICANE MODELS
CONTINUE A CONCENTRATED CLUSTERING OF LANDFALL BETWEEN EASTERN
LONG ISLAND TO THE TIP OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...WITH THE 12Z/26
OPERATIONAL MODEL CLUSTERING ON LANDFALL FROM NYC TO SE NEW
ENGLAND...AND 12Z GEFS FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FROM SOUTHERN NJ TO
EASTERN LI WITH LANDFALL. THE MODELS VARY IN TIMING OF LANDFALL
BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  

HAVE KEPT TIMING AND TRACK OF FORECAST CONSISTENT THE LATEST NHC
GUIDANCE...TAKING THE CENTER OF SANDY INTO THE SOUTHERN
NJ/DELMARVA COAST LATE MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING...WITH THE STORM
EXPECTED TO BE TRANSITIONING TO A DANGEROUS POST-TROPICAL BY THE
TIME OF LANDFALL. IT HAS TO BE EMPHASIZED...THAT ALTHOUGH THE
STORM IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO POST-TROPICAL BEFORE
LANDFALL...IT WILL BE A LARGE AND DANGEROUS STORM FOR THE
NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC.

BASED ON ABOVE...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
TO THE REGION...IN THE FORM OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND RESULTANT
URBAN...SMALL STREAM...AND RIVER FLOODING...HIGH WINDS CAUSING
WIDESPREAD DOWNING OF TREES AND POWER LINES...AND SIGNIFICANT
SHORELINE IMPACTS FROM COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION.

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE FROM SW TO NE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS WE BEGIN TO SEE A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE INFLUX AND DEEP LAYERED LIFT. THE
WINDOW FOR HEAVIEST RAIN IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN AS IT WILL DEPEND
ON EXACT TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SANDY AND INTERACTION WITH INTENSE
JET/SHORTWAVE ENERGY...BUT SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE
ANYWHERE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SEE THE HYDROLOGY
SECTIONS FOR MORE ON THE FLOODING POTENTIAL. AS FOR WINDS...THEY
INCREASE FROM THE E/NE ON SUNDAY BETWEEN SANDY AND HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE N. WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS WELL INTO THE 30S ARE
LIKELY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH THE CLOSEST APPROACH AND
LANDFALL OF SANDY...LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUE...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SPEEDS OF 40-50G70-80MPH...SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN ELEVATED
LOCATIONS. IF THESE WINDS ARE REALIZED...THE COMBINATION OF EVENT
DURATION...SATURATED GROUNDS...AND PARTIAL TO FULL FOLIAGE
TREES...WOULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD DOWNING OF TREES AND POWER
LINES...CAUSING DISRUPTION TO POWER AND POSSIBLY TRANSIT FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
IMPACTS...DETAILED IN THE TIDES AND COASTAL FLOODING SECTIONS.

ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE
LOCAL AREA...CONTINUE TO MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECASTS AS UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS WITH THE EXACT TIMING AND
DEGREE OF IMPACT DUE TO THE STILL WIDE ENVELOPE OF POSSIBLE
LANDFALL LOCATIONS. ALSO...REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
FOR THE LATEST TRACK AND FORECASTS.


.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A SIGNIFICANT AND PROLONGED COASTAL
FLOOD EVENT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. EASTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN
STRENGTHENING SUNDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING STARTING WITH THE SUNDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE AND BECOMING
INCREASING LIKELY AND WIDESPREAD FOR SUCCESSIVE HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE BY THE MONDAY NIGHT
HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS THE STRONGEST WINDS BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA.
THEN THE EXACT TRACK/TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF SANDY WILL DETERMINE
THE MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT AND WIDESPREAD
COASTAL FLOODING RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD FLOODING AND POSSIBLE
DAMAGE IN HISTORICALLY FLOOD PRONE SPOTS.

HAND IN HAND WITH THE COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE INCREASINGLY HIGH
SURF BATTERING THE COAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR BEACH EROSION...LOCALIZED WASHOVERS...AND DAMAGE
TO VULNERABLE SHORELINE STRUCTURES.

&&
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NYC PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS AND DISCUSSIONS - Fred, 10/26/2012, 9:04 am
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