Re: GFS makes a hard turn to the right ... I do not like this one
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 8/12/2013, 3:39 am
Since there is no invest yet, not a lot of options but the global models.

8/12 0Z - 1009mb, 31 knots (~ 36 mph)
8/11 18Z - 1006mb, 37 knots (~ 43 mph)
8/11 12Z - 1005mb, 44 knots (~ 51 mph)

Tracks for those 3 runs:
North American view (U.S. East Coast tracks): http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/tcgif/track.gfso.2013081200.east_coast.4cyc.png
Wider Atlantic view (Atlantic Basin) for origin: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/tcgif/track.gfso.2013081200.tc_atl_ll.4cyc.png
(Images do not update)

From this site:
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/

Click a latest run and then scroll to the first (closer North American view, with pressures) or second table (wider Atlantic view, without pressures). To get the actual knots I looked at the text data they have for each model at the bottom of the table. To look through the text data the easiest thing to do is find the approximate first coordinate of where the storm starts on the image then try to find that in the text data. Then you can get wind too. While this site does seem to try to get the highest wind from the storm, most of the time you don't get that information from just looking at a global model.

CMC for 8/12 0Z run:
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/tcgif/track.cmc.2013081200.east_coast.single.png
8/12 0Z - 1006mb, 31 knots (~ 36 mph)

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Back to the GFS for timing for example for the last run (8/12 0Z).

We go to this image:
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/tcgif/track.gfso.2013081200.east_coast.single.png

And this text file:
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/atx/storms.gfso.atcf_gen.ecml.2013081200

That last 1009mb on the image before landfall is this in the text file:

2013081200, 03, GFSO, 156, 291N,  872W,  31, 1009

156 hours (6.5 days) from 8/12 0Z. 31 knots, 1009mb, at 29.1N 87.2W.

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Graphical GFS:
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/

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Of course it is early. For actual intensity, the specific models available when it is an invest will be best to use as an approximate guide once it is defined.

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Satellite:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/imagery/watl.html

Hard to pick out anything.

To find the wave they are talking about, visit the "Tropical Weather Discussion" on the NHC's page:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

"Tropical Weather Discussion
205 AM EDT MON AUG 12 2013"

Direct link:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/

From the 2:05AM one, look for this:

"BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC."

That "0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS" is clickable. Direct link to the 0Z image:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/USA_00Z.gif

Now every 6 hours you have to click to go to the discussion because then you need the 12Z image, then 18Z and then 0Z. You can see the dashed line in the eastern Carib where the wave is. Although, the discussion does not call it a wave and it is not labeled as such in the image. You can see the other two labeled. They say this about if deeper in the discussion text:

"A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 18N65W 14N66W...TO 10N66W AT THE COAST
OF VENEZUELA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 62W AND 70W. THE
24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES...FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
12/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN...IS 0.61 FOR CURACAO...AND
0.53 FOR GUADELOUPE."

Not sure what the different is between the two. From the glossary:
http://w1.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?letter=t

"Tropical Wave
   (formerly known as inverted trough) - A trough or cyclonic curvature maximum in the trade wind easterlies. The wave may reach maximum amplitude in the lower middle troposphere or may be the reflection of an upper tropospheric cold low or an equatorward extension of a mid-latitude trough."

"Trough
   An elongated area of relatively low atmospheric pressure, usually not associated with a closed circulation, and thus used to distinguish from a closed low. The opposite of ridge."
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Global models hinting at potential Central/Western GOM system on Saturday/Sunday - DTB_2009, 8/11/2013, 5:34 pm
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