Something could form in the SW Gulf / Bay of Campeche within five days
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 9/7/2013, 8:40 pm
The following was added at 2pm on September 7th. Here is from the 8pm, which has the exact same text as the original 2pm:

"OTHER SYSTEMS WITH DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND BAY OF CAMPECHE IN A FEW DAYS.  SOME DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS."

Last four runs of the GFS as of 18Z on 9/7:
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/tcgif/track.gfso.2013090718.tc_atl_ll.4cyc.png
From: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/

National Digital Forecast Database Experimental Display:
http://preview.weather.gov/graphical/?zoom=5&lat=23.03345&lon=-86.1777&layers=00BTTTTT&region=7&element=9&mxmz=false&barbs=true
I don't really see anything.
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Something could form in the SW Gulf / Bay of Campeche within five days - Chris in Tampa, 9/7/2013, 8:40 pm
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