SHIPS Intensity Forecast for 8pm EDT on Monday
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 9/9/2013, 9:09 pm

                   *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                   * GOES PROXY USED,      OHC AVAILABLE       *
                   *    HUMBERTO  AL092013  09/10/13  00 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    50    55    62    69    75    87    94    95    92    84    72    59    49
V (KT) LAND       50    55    62    69    75    87    94    95    92    84    72    59    49
V (KT) LGE mod    50    55    61    66    71    80    84    81    74    66    59    52    47
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        12    10     8     3     5     9    14    17    26    31    37    41    44
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     3     3     5     1    -1    -6    -2    -1     0     0     3     0     1
SHEAR DIR         62    59    56    68    70   144   171   195   233   246   245   236   242
SST (C)         28.1  28.0  27.9  27.6  27.3  26.4  25.5  25.3  25.2  25.1  25.4  25.8  26.1
POT. INT. (KT)   138   136   134   130   127   118   110   108   106   105   108   111   114
ADJ. POT. INT.   133   130   128   123   120   111   102    99    96    94    96    97   100
200 MB T (C)   -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -52.4 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -52.5 -53.1
TH_E DEV (C)       7     7     7     7     7     6     6     6     6     6     6     6     7
700-500 MB RH     76    74    73    74    70    71    66    58    44    36    31    28    26
GFS VTEX (KT)     23    24    27    27    29    32    33    33    31    28    24    20    15
850 MB ENV VOR   133   129   143   146   144   140   142   133   114    82    75    53    36
200 MB DIV        60    73    85    89    83   110   128   102    50    -4    20     3   -11
700-850 TADV      -1     0     0     0     0     0     3     8    12    11     4     8     2
LAND (KM)        889   972  1055  1111  1170  1253  1307  1326  1371  1481  1671  1849  2026
LAT (DEG N)     13.8  14.1  14.3  14.8  15.3  17.0  19.3  21.4  23.3  24.8  25.9  26.4  26.4
LONG(DEG W)     25.7  26.5  27.3  27.9  28.4  29.0  29.4  29.8  30.2  31.1  32.8  34.5  36.3
STM SPEED (KT)     9     8     8     7     8    10    11    10     9     9     9     8     8
HEAT CONTENT      12     9     9     8     6     3     0     0     0     0     0     0     2

 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10      CX,CY:  -9/  2
 T-12 MAX WIND:  40            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  457  (MEAN=624)
 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  15.3 (MEAN=14.5)
 % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  78.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                       INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                        6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                       ----------------------------------------------------------
 SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  11.  12.  12.  13.  14.
 SST POTENTIAL          1.   2.   3.   3.   4.   4.   4.   4.   3.   2.   1.   1.
 VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     0.   1.   2.   3.   5.   6.   6.   5.   2.  -2.  -5.  -9.
 VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.  -1.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.
 VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     1.   2.   3.   4.   5.   6.   6.   5.   5.   5.   5.   4.
 PERSISTENCE            2.   3.   3.   4.   4.   4.   3.   3.   2.   1.   0.   0.
 200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.
 THETA_E EXCESS         0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -4.  -5.  -7.  -9. -10. -12. -13.
 700-500 MB RH          0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.   0.
 GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   1.   2.   3.   6.   8.   8.   6.   3.  -1.  -6.  -9.
 850 MB ENV VORTICITY   1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  10.  10.  10.   9.
 200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   5.   6.   6.   5.   4.   3.   2.
 850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.
 ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.
 STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   1.   2.   3.   2.   2.   1.
 DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
 GOES PREDICTORS        0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                       ----------------------------------------------------------
 TOTAL CHANGE           5.  12.  19.  25.  37.  44.  45.  42.  34.  22.   9.  -1.

  ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092013   HUMBERTO 09/10/13  00 UTC **
          ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):  10.0 Range:-49.5 to  33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  2.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   7.8 Range: 28.8 to   2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to   2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  79.6 Range: 43.2 to  93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.9
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :  76.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.3
Heat content (KJ/cm2) :   8.8 Range:  0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.0
D200 (10**7s-1)       :  78.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=   999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=   999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=   999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=   999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%)

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092013   HUMBERTO 09/10/2013  00 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)     0      0(  0)       5(  5)      10( 15)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)      0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

From: ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/

Other models:
http://www.hurricanecity.com/models/data.cgi?basin=al&year=2013&storm=09&display=wind_diagram&latestrun=1

That record is looking further and further away. Wednesday at 8am EDT is a long time away.

Here is that storm in 2002 we are trying to beat, Gustav:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/models/data.cgi?basin=al&year=2002&storm=08
Best track table: http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/models/data.cgi?basin=al&year=2002&storm=08&display=besttrack

That was also a Wednesday in 2002.
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09L.HUMBERTO - hanna, 9/9/2013, 8:10 am
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