Re: Ingrid now a hurricane
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 9/14/2013, 6:54 pm
I'm not sure what the shear picture is like. There does seem like there is, and there has been from Manuel, but that has not had a significant impact yet.

Water vapor loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/10L/imagery/wv-animated.gif

SHIPS thinks there is a lot of shear, yet it still strengthens the system. Perhaps that is why the NHC is "NOT AS HIGH AS THE LGEM/SHIPS MODEL PAIR".

                   *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                   * GOES AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE       *
                   *      INGRID  AL102013  09/14/13  18 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    65    70    72    74    77    78    80    80    74    71    67    67    65
V (KT) LAND       65    70    72    74    77    78    80    51    35    29    28    27    30
V (KT) LGE mod    65    71    75    78    79    80    80    52    35    29    27    27    30
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        23    25    27    23    18    21     9     6     4     7     7     3     4
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -3    -3    -4     1     5     0    -2    -1    -3    -2     1    -1     2
SHEAR DIR        282   286   304   301   292   302   286   324    29    13    57    67    23
SST (C)         29.5  29.6  29.7  29.7  29.7  29.6  29.5  29.4  29.4  29.4  29.4  29.4  29.4
POT. INT. (KT)   159   159   161   162   162   160   158   156   154   154   155   155   156
ADJ. POT. INT.   143   140   141   144   145   143   139   136   133   134   135   136   139
200 MB T (C)   -52.1 -51.5 -51.7 -51.9 -51.4 -51.1 -50.7 -50.6 -50.4 -50.7 -50.9 -50.9 -51.1
TH_E DEV (C)       8     9     7     6     8     8     9     9    10     9     9     9    10
700-500 MB RH     80    79    77    77    78    80    85    84    81    82    80    79    78
GFS VTEX (KT)     16    17    17    18    19    20    20    20    11     9     6     7     6
850 MB ENV VOR    66    71    65    63    71    78   110   115   111   112    89    94    66
200 MB DIV        99   100    99   114    99   100    82    41    58    65    43    48    16
700-850 TADV       6     7     8     7     5    -4    -2    -8    -7   -11     0    -3     0
LAND (KM)        253   286   319   271   229   132    27   -59  -132  -125   -98   -73    11
LAT (DEG N)     21.0  21.4  21.7  22.0  22.3  22.6  22.3  22.0  21.9  21.7  21.3  21.2  21.4
LONG(DEG W)     94.4  94.3  94.1  94.6  95.1  96.5  97.6  98.4  99.1  99.0  98.5  98.1  97.2
STM SPEED (KT)     6     4     3     6     6     6     4     4     2     2     3     3     5
HEAT CONTENT      30    33    35    44    48    42    15     0     0     0     0     0    10

 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/  6      CX,CY:   2/  6
 T-12 MAX WIND:  50            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  448  (MEAN=624)
 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:   9.3 (MEAN=14.5)
 % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  97.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                       INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                        6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                       ----------------------------------------------------------
 SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  11.  12.  12.  13.  14.
 SST POTENTIAL          1.   3.   4.   5.   6.   6.   5.   4.   3.   2.   1.   0.
 VERTICAL SHEAR MAG    -1.  -4.  -6.  -7.  -9.  -7.  -4.  -1.   1.   3.   5.   6.
 VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   1.   1.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.
 VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -1.   0.   1.   2.   3.
 PERSISTENCE            3.   4.   5.   5.   5.   4.   4.   3.   2.   1.   0.  -1.
 200/250 MB TEMP.       0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -5.  -6.  -7.  -9. -10. -11. -12.
 THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -5.
 700-500 MB RH          0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -3.
 GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   1.  -7. -10. -12. -11. -12.
 850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   5.   6.   7.   7.   7.
 200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   1.   2.   3.   4.   5.   5.   5.   5.   4.   3.   2.
 850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.
 ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -5.
 STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   2.   2.   1.
 DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
 GOES PREDICTORS        1.   2.   3.   3.   4.   4.   3.   3.   2.   2.   2.   2.
 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                       ----------------------------------------------------------
 TOTAL CHANGE           5.   7.   9.  12.  13.  15.  15.   9.   6.   2.   2.   0.

  ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102013     INGRID 09/14/13  18 UTC **
          ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):  15.0 Range:-49.5 to  33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  2.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :  23.2 Range: 28.8 to   2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.2/  0.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :   9.3 Range: 37.5 to   2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  1.1
850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  80.4 Range: 43.2 to  93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.9
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :  77.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.3
Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  38.0 Range:  0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.2/  0.1
D200 (10**7s-1)       : 102.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C:  94.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  0.2

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    37% is   3.1 times the sample mean(11.9%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    21% is   2.7 times the sample mean( 7.6%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=     1% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=     1% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%)

  ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102013     INGRID 09/14/13  18 UTC         ##
  ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6                          ##
  ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102013     INGRID 09/14/2013  18 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)     2      4(  6)       6( 12)       6( 17)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)      0      0(  0)       1(  1)       7(  8)     PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED

From: ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/
155
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Ingrid now a hurricane - Chris in Tampa, 9/14/2013, 5:06 pm
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