very interesting WPC Discussion
Posted by
cypresstx on 9/19/2013, 3:12 pm
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: DRIFT UP THE MEXICAN COAST
CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE -- SEE NHC OUTLOOKS
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER -- NHC -- GIVES THIS SYSTEM AN 80%
CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS AS
IT DRIFTS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A PORTION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE -- AND ASSOCIATED UNDERLYING TRADE WINDS --
GUIDES THE SYSTEM NORTHWEST FOR A COUPLE DAYS, BEFORE AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FLATTENS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OUT OF EXISTENCE AND LEAVING THE SYSTEM IN A REGION OF
DOLDRUMS WITHIN BECALMED FLOW BELAYING MUCH FORWARD MOTION. WEAK
UPPER TROUGHING -- ADVERTISED BY THE NON-GFS GUIDANCE -- ALONG THE
GULF COAST OPENS THE DOOR TO AN EASTWARD DRIFT IN A FEW DAYS. A
WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST WILL PLUNDER SOME OF
THE GULF SYSTEM'S MOISTURE, LEADING TO A PRE-TYPE PRECIPITATION
EVENT IN 2-3 DAYS, DEPENDING UPON ITS MAGNITUDE. SEE WPC QPF
GRAPHICS AND DISCUSSIONS FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE RAINFALL FORECAST.
EVEN THOUGH THE NON-GFS GUIDANCE PARROTS ONE ANOTHER IN RECURVING
THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE TEXAS, NHC WAS SPELLBOUND BY THE SIREN SONG OF
THE PAST COUPLE GFS RUNS DURING THE 17Z MEDIUM RANGE COORDINATION
CALL, WITH A FORECAST TRACK THAT WOULD PILLAGE PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST MEXICAN COAST INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE SYSTEM'S
DISSIPATION. A BULK OF THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SUPPORT LEAVE THE
SYSTEM FOUNDERING OVER THE GULF FOR DAYS, WHICH REMAINS A VIABLE
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO. THE NHC SOLUTION IS PREFERRED BY DEFAULT
WITH BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE DUE TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. SEE
NHC OUTLOOKS FOR THE LATEST ON THE SYSTEM'S STATUS.
...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
would have loved to have been a fly on the wall for that coordination call...
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