Tropical System in Gulf next week?
Posted by
AlligatorPointer on 9/28/2013, 3:10 pm
I lifted these excerpts from today's Tallahassee NWS forecast :
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=TAE&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
238 PM EDT Sat Sep 28 2013
.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night through Saturday]...
The long term forecast is tricky as some models shows a tropical
system possible impacting our area later in the period.
The upper ridge will shift Ewd over the wrn Atlc with axis over
Bahamas Thurs into Sat as a strong trough digs SEWD over the Nrn
Plains and Cntrl Rockies and becomes cutoff from the main upper flow
over Nrn tier Conus. The position of Bahamas ridge allows deep
tropical moisture to advect Nwd from Wrn Carib/SE Gulf of Mex around
periphery of ridge. At surface, low may develop over NW Carib/SE
Gulf and gradually lift Nwd over Ern Gulf. Here models diverge with
GFS much more bullish than ECMWF on this scenario. The 12z GFS
develops an area of low pressure over the Carib Sea on Tues, takes
over Haiti on Wed, NEWD across Cntrl FL Thurs night into Fri then
off this coast Fri night. This would likely set up up local area for
sharp NW-SE POP gradient with a good chance of convection and
possibly flooding Ern Big Bend and adjacent waters Thurs into Fri.
Latest ECMWF scenario seems to keep wetter scenario to our west and
southeast and UK Met has also backed off. Until I see more evidence
of model consistency or that the stronger GFS is initializing the
best, I will lean towards weaker scenario and only gradually
increase winds and POPS which follows thinking on surrounding
offices. By Sat Eve ern trough has moves offshore to be replaced by
ridge and a drying trend.
For now,
winds over mainly offshore marine area will increase to exercise
caution on Wed then likely SCEC nearshore and SCA offshore into Fri.
Seas will gradually build to SCA offshore by late Thurs. All this of
course is highly dependent on actual track/intensity of any tropical
system.
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Tropical System in Gulf next week? - AlligatorPointer, 9/28/2013, 3:10 pm Post A Reply
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