| SHIPS intensity / shear forecast from September 29th at 2am EDT: * ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972013 09/29/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 23 26 32 36 38 41 43 44 41 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 23 26 32 36 38 35 41 42 39 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 19 19 20 21 23 22 26 28 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 21 20 21 21 8 14 12 18 16 23 21 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 2 1 -2 -1 -8 -3 0 -4 0 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 254 263 253 242 251 229 241 225 235 222 233 239 247 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.7 29.6 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 152 155 157 163 161 156 156 155 153 152 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 142 143 145 147 152 150 142 142 140 136 134 132 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 71 70 67 64 61 54 52 53 54 57 55 57 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 8 9 10 10 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 19 17 24 23 15 12 4 -6 -13 -9 -25 -29 -77 200 MB DIV 93 96 65 33 3 13 35 40 47 46 56 26 23 700-850 TADV 2 3 7 4 6 5 1 0 0 1 4 4 8 LAND (KM) 311 244 172 105 50 30 206 155 78 -16 171 351 355 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.6 16.2 16.8 17.3 18.4 19.5 20.6 21.5 22.6 23.9 25.3 26.6 LONG(DEG W) 76.0 76.4 76.8 77.2 77.5 78.5 79.7 81.0 82.2 83.6 84.9 85.8 86.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 6 7 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 39 40 48 58 71 27 65 58 62 115 80 32 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 19. 24. 29. 33. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 12. 16. 18. 21. 23. 24. 21. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972013 INVEST 09/29/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 51.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 5.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972013 INVEST 09/29/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972013 INVEST 09/29/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) From: ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/ |