Typhoon NEOGURI ...
Posted by hanna on 7/8/2014, 9:07 am
I could use some help.  I have wondered about this for a while.  The JMA has winds  of Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt) which means winds of 97.816mph. The Navy?JTWC has winds at 08 / 06z 110kts which means 126.586mph which is correct?


TY 1408 (NEOGURI)
Issued at 11:50 UTC, 8 July 2014

Analyses at 08/11 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N27°30'(27.5°)
E125°35'(125.6°)
Direction and speed of movement N 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more E280km(150NM)
W200km(110NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more E700km(375NM)
W440km(240NM)

<Estimate for 08/12 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N27°40'(27.7°)
E125°35'(125.6°)
Direction and speed of movement N 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more E280km(150NM)
W200km(110NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more E700km(375NM)
W440km(240NM)

<Forecast for 08/15 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N28°10'(28.2°)
E125°25'(125.4°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 60km(30NM)
Storm warning area E330km(180NM)
W260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 08/21 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N29°20'(29.3°)
E125°30'(125.5°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area E350km(190NM)
W280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 09/03 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N30°10'(30.2°)
E125°55'(125.9°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area E390km(210NM)
W310km(170NM)

<Forecast for 09/09 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N30°40'(30.7°)
E126°25'(126.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area E370km(200NM)
W310km(170NM)





It appears to me the eye passed over the water no islands, woo hoo!
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08W.NEOGURI expected to be a Super Typhoon - hanna, 7/5/2014, 7:48 am
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