Re: Hilo forecast
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 8/7/2014, 11:23 am
A lot of things to watch spinning across the Pacific on that wind map.
As of 11am EDT (5am HST):
"A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR KAUAI COUNTY."
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/ISELLE.php
80mph as of this advisory, although the convection with Iselle keeps pulsing. Sometimes more, sometimes less.
"WTPA43 PHFO 071501
TCDCP3
HURRICANE ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092014
500 AM HST THU AUG 07 2014
ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF ISELLE HAS DEGRADED SLIGHTLY
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...A PERSISTENT EYE FEATURE CONTINUES
TO BE OBSERVED...AND ISELLE REMAINS A HURRICANE. DATA FROM AN AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CORROBORATE THE SLIGHT WEAKENING
TREND OBSERVED BY SATELLITE...AS MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT DIMINISHED FROM 100 KT TO 85 KT OVERNIGHT...AND
MAXIMUM SFMR WINDS HAVE LOWERED TO NEAR 60 KT. BASED ON A BLEND OF
THE AIRCRAFT DATA AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES BETWEEN 4.0/65
KT AND 4.5/77 KT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF ISELLE IS BEING LOWERED
TO 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/15 KT...WHICH HAS BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS...WITH ISELLE BEING STEERED BY A
MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE UPDATED FORECAST TRACK REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH THE LAST SEVERAL FORECASTS IN THE SHORT TERM...AND
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING LANDFALL ALONG WINDWARD BIG ISLAND
THIS EVENING. IN 36 TO 48 HOURS ISELLE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AS A WEAK CUT OFF LOW DIGS SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...RESULTING IN A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD
MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS. AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH AND ISELLE WEAKENS...
A NEW RIDGE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTH OF THE WEAKENING
ISELLE...AND THE FORWARD MOTION WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. THE
UPDATED FORECAST TRACK ONLY OFFERS MINOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS...
AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE WELL-PERFORMING CONSENSUS TVCN.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR ONLY SLIGHT WEAKENING BEFORE
LANDFALL TONIGHT...DESPITE THE FORECAST OF MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
SHEAR BY SHIPS GUIDANCE. ISELLE REMAINS SOUTH OF A RIDGE ALOFT
CENTERED WEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND A RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE BAJA PENINSULA. A COL...OR WEAKNESS...BETWEEN THESE TWO RIDGES
PROVIDES A LIGHTER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH ISELLE WOULD BE ABLE
TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY BEFORE LANDFALL...WHEREAS IF
ISELLE WERE TO MOVE WEST OF THE COL AND CLOSER TO THE RIDGE CENTERED
TO THE WEST...THE SHEAR PROFILE WOULD BE MORE DEBILITATING. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST PROBLEM IS THAT GLOBAL MODELS ARE OFFERING
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS AS TO THE INTERACTION BETWEEN ISELLE AND THE
FLOW ALOFT IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH SOME SOLUTIONS TRACKING ISELLE
AND THE COL WESTWARD IN TANDEM...WHILE OTHERS MOVE ISELLE WEST OF
THE COL AND INTO AN AREA OF STRONGER SHEAR. INTERACTION WITH THE
TERRAIN OF THE BIG ISLAND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ISELLE TONIGHT...
WHILE A SOUTHWARD-MOVING CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING NORTHWEST OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON DAYS 2 AND 3 WILL BRING STRONGER SHEAR.
INTERACTION WITH THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO THE DEMISE OF
ISELLE...WITH REMNANT LOW STATUS FORECAST BY DAY 5...CLOSELY
FOLLOWING THE TRENDS OFFERED BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/1500Z 18.5N 150.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 19.1N 152.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 19.8N 155.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
36H 09/0000Z 20.5N 158.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 21.0N 161.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 22.5N 165.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 24.4N 171.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 27.0N 177.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD"
Hawaii satellite:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/hi.html |
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