| Starting to now: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/15E/15E_floater.html And it might stay. The NHC increased their intensity forecast and they say it could go higher. A hurricane watch was issued for part of the southern Baja peninsula. A warning is possible if models continues to trend closer. Track: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep5+shtml/204657.shtml?3-daynl?large#contents They got lucky with the last storm, passing just to the west of them. Still a lot of uncertainty regarding this one. HURRICANE ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 200 PM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014 Odile is continuing to intensify this afternoon with visible satellite pictures showing an intermittent eye. The latest intensity estimates are between 77-84 kt, and 80 kt is chosen as the initial wind speed. With the hurricane moving over very warm waters within light shear for the next day or so, steady or rapid intensification seems likely. Despite the seemingly favorable environment, it is peculiar that none of the deterministic guidance brings Odile to a major hurricane. However, the SHIPS rapid intensification index shows about a 50/50 shot of Odile having a 30 kt increase in wind speed during the next 24 hours. After considering the environment and the SHIPS-RI guidance, the latest NHC forecast is above all of the objective guidance during the first 24 hours, and could still be too low. After that time, Odile is forecast to weaken by late Monday since it is forecast to pass near the cold wake of Norbert, with cooler waters also expected after that time. The NHC forecast philosophy is the same as the previous one, using a blend of the previous interpolated NHC prediction and the intensity consensus. After moving erratically earlier today, Odile appears to be moving more steadily to the northwest at about 5 kt. The hurricane should accelerate northwestward by late today due to a ridge strengthening over the southern United States. Guidance has shifted toward the northeast, closer to Baja California Sur, with generally less ridging predicted over northwestern Mexico. The new forecast is adjusted in that direction, roughly 30 n mi to the north of the previous forecast during Odile's closest approach to Baja California Sur, and is close to a blend of the dynamical model consensus and the ECMWF model. The long-term forecast is also adjusted eastward closer to Baja California, reflecting the latest consensus aids. A hurricane watch and tropical storm warning has been issued for portions of Baja California Sur. A hurricane warning could be issued later tonight or early tomorrow if the northward trends in the model guidance continue. Moisture from a disturbance over northeastern Mexico and the Pacific ITCZ is forecast to be advected by Odile's circulation northwestward across Mexico into the southwestern United States for early next week. This could result in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in those areas. Please see information from your local weather office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 17.0N 106.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 18.0N 107.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 19.8N 108.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 21.6N 110.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 23.0N 112.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 25.0N 114.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 27.0N 116.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 18/1800Z 28.0N 117.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake HURRICANE ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 200 PM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014 ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 106.2W ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 475 MI...760 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM CABO SAN LAZARO SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST AND LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SANTA FE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ON THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO LORETO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO SAN LAZARO TO LA PAZ A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SANTA FE TO LA PAZ A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES * NORTH OF LA PAZ TO LORETO A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ODILE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.2 WEST. ODILE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF ODILE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND PASS NEAR OR SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ODILE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON SUNDAY BEFORE WEAKENING LIKELY BEGINS ON MONDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195 MILES...315 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 971 MB...28.68 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH THIS EVENING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN BAJA CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA BY MONDAY NIGHT. SURF...SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. RAINFALL...ODILE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF AROUND 15 INCHES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ACROSS THE MEXICAN STATES OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...COLIMA...JALISCO...AND WESTERN MICHOACAN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ |