Re: Odile now hurricane in East Pac; tropical storm watch issued for part of southern Baja penin
Posted by hanna on 9/14/2014, 2:35 pm
As I Type this they are saying winds @ 115kts/135mph. For now the Navy suggests winds to become 120 kts/138.094mph gusts 145kts/166.863mph. Notice how far north and east the cone goes. 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 141755 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE ODILE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 1100 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014 ...MAJOR HURRICANE EXPECTED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND MONDAY... ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS ENTERING THE EYE OF ODILE... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 108.5W ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM WNW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS TO LA PAZ A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA. * THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO LORETO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES * THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO SANTA ROSALIA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF SANTA ROSALIA TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF THE EYE OF HURRICANE ODILE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.5 WEST. ODILE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF ODILE WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ODILE IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ODILE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH WHEN IT NEARS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 941 MB...27.79 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BEGINNING BY TONIGHT...AND ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA LATE MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR IN ADVANCE OF THE HURRICANE CONDITIONS LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN THE WARNING AREA. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. SURF...SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ARE BEGINNING TO AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. RAINFALL...ODILE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF AROUND 15 INCHES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ACROSS THE MEXICAN STATES OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...COLIMA...JALISCO...AND WESTERN MICHOACAN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART It is 2:35pm and there is no update, I wonder why? One can see Odile clearly on "Eastern U.S. Sector Infrared: Enhancement 4"  In the floater Chris posted it looks like part of the southern Baja peninsula I believe to be correctly referred to as Baja California Sur will be hit. The outer edges of Odile are there. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/15E/flash-rb-long.html |
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In this thread:
Odile now hurricane in East Pac; tropical storm watch issued for part of southern Baja peninsula - Chris in Tampa, 9/13/2014, 5:02 am
- Re: Odile now hurricane in East Pac; tropical storm watch issued for part of southern Baja peninsula - hanna, 9/13/2014, 1:44 pm
- Re: Odile now hurricane in East Pac; tropical storm watch issued for part of southern Baja penin - freesong, 9/14/2014, 9:42 pm
- Re: Odile now hurricane in East Pac; tropical storm watch issued for part of southern Baja penin - Chris in Tampa, 9/13/2014, 6:54 pm
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