How is Erika Supposed to Turn Northward??
Posted by Gianmarc on 8/27/2015, 8:44 am
Someone, help me out here. I mean that, not just saying that. Someone educate me on this one: The latest advisory calls for Erika to make a pronounced northward jump over the next 12 hours from 16.8 to 17.6 N. But the system has headed almost due west since it reached 16N on Tuesday night; she STILL is yet to reach 17 N now, almost two full days later, while pressures north and east of her all remain rather high, and the sat loops today suggest a continued nearly due-west motion.

It is tough to make out the center just on the loops, and a lot of times it is easy to fall into the trap of following convection rather than the center and mistaking the convection's apparent motion with that of the overall storm. Even so, however, I have a very hard time seeing what conditions justify the expectation that Erika is going to rocket out of 17N today after being stuck in 16 for days.

I won't be surprised if forthcoming NHC tracks are nudged back a little more to the left again.

Pressure readings near and around Erika:


Current Sat Loop:
453
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How is Erika Supposed to Turn Northward?? - Gianmarc, 8/27/2015, 8:44 am
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