Re: NHC_Atlantic tweeted it earlier
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 6/2/2016, 11:08 am
I hadn't followed the last one yet.
Advisory is out.
Track
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/145634.shtml?5day#contents
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016
1100 AM EDT THU JUN 02 2016
...BONNIE RE-DEVELOPS INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES OVER
COASTAL EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.1N 75.1W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM ESE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Bonnie
was located near latitude 35.1 North, longitude 75.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A
turn toward the east-northeast and an increase in forward speed are
expected later today. On the forecast track, the center of Bonnie
should move away from the coast of North Carolina this afternoon
and tonight.
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours.
After that time, Bonnie is expected to again become a post-tropical
low.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Gusty winds may occur over portions of the eastern North
Carolina coast this afternoon, including the Pamlico Sound.
RAINFALL: Bonnie is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over the Outer Banks of North
Carolina through Thursday evening. Isolated maximum amounts of 5
inches are possible. This rain will likely produce flooding over
already saturated ground.
STORM SURGE: Localized coastal flooding and dangerous surf is
possible along portions of the North Carolina coast, including the
Outer Banks. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Beven
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016
1100 AM EDT THU JUN 02 2016
Satellite imagery and coastal radar data indicate that the low
pressure area that was formerly Bonnie has developed persistent
organized convection near the center. Based on this, the system is
again being designated as a tropical depression. The initial
intensity of 25 kt and central pressure of 1009 mb are based on
surface data near the center, along with a satellite intensity
estimate of 25 kt from TAFB.
The initial motion estimate is 055/5. Bonnie is moving along the
southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies, and the cyclone
should move generally east-northeastward to eastward with a gradual
increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. The
track forecast follows that of the various consensus models, which
are tightly clustered.
The center of Bonnie will be moving over warm Gulf Stream waters
for the next 12-24 hours while the vertical wind shear is light.
Thus, the intensity forecast calls for modest strengthening during
that time. After that, increasing shear and sea surface
temperatures below 24C should cause Bonnie to again degenerate to a
remnant low, with the system dissipating by 72 hours.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/1500Z 35.1N 75.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 35.3N 74.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 35.8N 72.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 36.1N 69.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 04/1200Z 36.1N 66.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Beven |
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Bonnie is no more...maybe... -
AquaRN,
5/30/2016, 4:31 pm Post A Reply
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